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Why Barack Obama Is Winning — And Why McCain’s Cynicism Is Losing

Mike Rolan — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 01:17:06 +0000

Here’s the two key things you need to know about the Palin-McCain campaign’s cynical new line of attack:

1. Barack Obama is way ahead of John McCain in this campaign. In fact, he’s at or above 50% in three of the four national tracking polls, and leading in all of them.

2. The reason for McCain’s slide in the polls is simple: While Barack Obama has focused his campaign on solutions to get this country out of the ditch that Bush-McCain policies have put us in, John McCain has focused his campaign around lies about his opponent and the glorification of his own personality and that of his running mate.

To put it in blunt terms, while Barack Obama has provided answers and solutions, John McCain has provided nothing.

And now John McCain is doubling down on his failed political strategy. He is now insourcing the Swiftboating slime machine that is the hallmark of Bush-Rove-McCain politics.

John McCain thinks the only way he can win this election is by destroying Barack Obama.

But he’s wrong.

The problem for John McCain is that this election isn’t about Barack Obama.

This election is about what’s important to America at this crucial point in our nation’s history.

It’s about recovering from the disastrous Bush-McCain foreign policy legacy.

It’s about recovering from this economic catastrophe unleashed by eight years of Republican economics.

It’s about finally doing something about our energy and environmental problems.

It’s about changing direction from the past eight years, and on that essential challenge, John McCain has nothing to say.

All he has is character attacks — character attacks that just won’t work.

If we wanted to play his game, we could go after McCain’s fundraiser with G. Gordon Liddy who had advocated killing federal agents by shooting them in the face. We could make as a centerpiece of the campaign John McCain’s vote against the seminal 1990s legislation that protected women’s health clinics from anti-choice terrorists. We could talk about Sarah Palin’s involvement with the pro-secessionist Alaskan Independence Party. We could savage her extremist witch-doctor religious freak show.

We could do all that, but that’s not what this campaign is about.

This campaign is about the future of our country and the world. We have so many problems that are so serious and need to be dealt with.

Barack Obama is winning because has addressed these problems head on and talks about them every day. Because what matters to him — and to us — is delivering the change we need to start moving in the right direction.

John McCain is losing because the only thing that he has to offer is tired, old, recycled attacks on Barack Obama. The only thing he offers is the cynical politics of division. The only thing he offers is lies and deceit.

This November, we’re going to move past John McCain, and we’re going to close the door on the Bush era once and for all. We’re going to leave it behind, in the past, where it belongs.

It’s time to get something done for America, and the world.

A Fake Headline That’s Actually True

Mike Rolan — Sun, 05 Oct 2008 01:17:06 +0000

A friend of mine said that with McCain’s new lines of attacks, he’s basically giving up on the economy.

I think that pretty much sums up the state of John McCain’s campaign, so while I won’t expect to see this headline in The Washington Post, I wouldn’t disagree with it one bit:

The End of The Bailout Drama (Hopefully)

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:39:25 +0000

Here’s my take of the passage of the bailout bill. Everyone, have a great weekend. JNS

The Debate

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:39:24 +0000

My assessment.

Republican Zeitgeist

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:39:24 +0000

Krauthammer throws in the towel.

Did Women Like Sarah?

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:39:24 +0000

From TIME’s Amy Sullivan:

Last night in Colorado (one of the key swing states we have our eyes on), the Democratic polling group Greenberg Quinlan Rosner brought together 40 undecided women voters to watch the vice-presidential debate. In pre-interviews before the festivities started, most of the women admitted that they didn’t know much about either of the running mates. They’d heard plenty about Sarah Palin in particular, but they didn’t know who she was, didn’t know what she thought.

By the time the debate was over, the voters had a better sense of who the candidates were. But they still didn’t know what Palin thought on any major issue other than energy. Even women who found her personally likeable and confident complained that she seemed “coached” and stuck so closely to “talking points and sound bytes” that they weren’t sure what kind of vice-president (or, for that matter, president) she would be.
As with the St. Louis focus group that watched the first presidential debate, however, generally favorable reactions to the Democratic team didn’t translate into a significant shift of support from undecided voters. All forty women came into the undecided and after listening to the two running mates debate for 90 minutes, 8 had moved to the Obama camp, another 8 to McCain, and the remaining 24 were still uncommitted.

In a discussion that took place after the debate, some of the women who became Obama supporters said that they had been concerned about Obama’s relatively brief political career but found themselves reassured by Biden. “If I vote for Barack Obama, it will be because of Joe Biden,” said one unmarried women. A handful of women thought that Biden sounded too much like a Washington insider or an old-fashioned pol, a conclusion that probably wasn’t helped by his use of Senate-speak and references to legislative procedures. But several had teared up when the Delaware senator talked about losing his first wife and daughter, and felt more favorably about him as a result. “He got emotional there in the end,” said another unmarried women. “I didn’t know his wife and child died. That touched me.”

Overall, the women warmed up to both candidates throughout the evening—both Biden and Palin’s favorability ratings rose 9 points from pre- to post-debate. They liked Palin’s strength and confidence, and the married women particularly responded to her “folksiness” and “down-to-earth” personality. That personal regard, however, didn’t necessarily mean they wanted to see her in the White House. “I’d like to have lunch with Sarah,” said one married woman, “but have Joe running my country.” Another agreed: “I think Sarah Palin is cute as a button and is good in sound bytes, but she just is not ready.” Before the debate, only 10 of the women believed Palin was not ready to be vice-president or president; by the end of the evening more than half of them (21) shared that concern.

The economy has been the number-one issue for women voters—particularly unmarried women—throughout the campaign season, and that held true for this focus group as well. And on that point, they were much more impressed by Biden’s ability to talk about the economy and relate to the concerns of middle-class voters. Before the debate, 14 women preferred Biden over Palin on the economy, but that number climbed to 23 afterward. A similar shift took place on the question of which candidate they trusted to handle health care—9 women initially preferred Biden, but that number more than doubled to 20 over the course of the evening. Several noted that they would have liked to hear Palin offer any details about what a McCain/Palin health care plan would look like.

Biden may not have closed the deal for the majority of these undecided women, but he impressed and reassured them on the issues that they say will determine their votes in November. And while Palin presented herself as someone voters can relate to, her performance seems to have raised even more questions—at least for this small group of undecided women—about whether she is qualified to be on the Republican ticket.

The Latest on the Bailout

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 23:39:24 +0000

Anyone have that sense of deja vu? We’re into the final debate and we’ve been here before (Monday). But coming from the last votes in the Speaker’s Lobby, there seems to be a decent number of folks who have switched over. John Shadegg, Jim Ramstad and Zach Wamp said yesterday they’re for it. I spoke with Sue Myrick and Michael Conaway who are both voting yes. “Overall this is right for the country,” Myrick said.

From the left, John Lewis, Emanuel Cleaver and Shelley Berkley have come out for the bill. And Bill Pascrell just said on the floor he’s for it.

Though, Dem Whip Jim Clyburn said in the Speaker’s Lobby that he thinks he’ll lose some Blue Dogs. Speaking of which, here’s the latest from me.

Brian Williams On The Late Show: "I’m A Maverick, And I May Not Answer The Questions Tonight"

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 19:46:23 +0000

Friday night on the Late Show, it was a meeting of the two most prominent media personalities spurned by the McCain campaign — Brian Williams and David Letterman.

Neither man is terribly happy about being rejected by McCain-land, but they both manage to maintain their sense of humor. Here’s video:

Three Out Of Four

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 19:46:23 +0000

Obama is now at or above 50% in three of the four tracking polls.

Hotline/Diageo has it at 48-42. Gallup has it as 50-42. Rasmussen has it as 51-45. And Daily Kos/R2000 shows the biggest lead of all: 52-40.

But with good news comes bad. Unless McCain decides to give up the campaign, he’s going to go nook-yoo-ler. That will probably have a negative impact on Obama’s poll numbers, and it might even dominate news coverage for a short period of time, because conflict is sexy.

The challenge for us, as supporters of Obama, is going to be simple: we can’t overreact to McCain’s coming attacks, and we need to see them for what they are: desperate attempts to distract attention away from the fundamental issue in this race, which is reversing course from the disastrous path charted George Bush and the GOP over the past eight years.

So even if the race gets a little closer, we can’t freak out about it. The poll numbers aren’t what matters. The bile behind John McCain’s attacks aren’t what matters. All that really matters is getting this country out of the rut that John McCain’s policies has put it in. Everything else is background noise. And as long as we stay focused, we win.

Woodward: Bush Said His Iran Strategy Was "They’re A**holes"

Mike Rolan — Sat, 04 Oct 2008 19:46:23 +0000

There’s been so much going on with the campaign lately, that I hadn’t paid much attention to Bob Woodward’s newest book, The War Within.

Tonight he was on Real Time with Bill Maher (video below) and he relayed a couple of interesting items.

First, he said that during White House discussions on Iran, a senior military leader asked Bush what his strategy was. Bush’s answer? “They’re assholes.” Just gives you a sense as to how crude and clueless our current president is, and how desperately we need a change.

Second — and this was really interesting — he maintained that the surge was not the cause of the decrease in violence in Iraq. Instead, Woodward said a covert program run by the U.S. military was the primary reason for the decrease in violence. Woodward didn’t get specific, but it basically sounded like a targeted assassinations program.

According to Woodward, the administration has confirmed his account. Seems like that might be something for McCain to ponder the next time he wants to say that the surge is the defining reason he ought to be elected president.

Here’s video:

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